The RBA just raised rates again. In Griffith, don’t let the noise get in the way of the facts

There’s an old saying: don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story. We think property works better the other way round.

Right now there are three stories doing the rounds that are each worth checking against the facts before you act on any of them: the headline that rates just went up again, the national coverage saying the market is turning, and the confident pitch from whichever agent wants your listing. Taken on their own, each one sounds like a reason to worry or to rush. Put together and checked against what’s actually true, they add up to something calmer: a market where buyers get the time to make a confident, well-informed decision, and sellers deal with buyers who are genuinely ready to go.

The noise: a fourth rate rise. The fact: it’s already filtering the market for you

The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on Tuesday, its fourth rise this year, taking it from 3.60% in January. On a $600,000 loan, that’s roughly $360 more a month than you were paying back then, with this week’s move adding around $90 of that. Cotality puts the hit to an average couple’s borrowing power at around $94,700, 9%, since the start of the year. Nobody sends you a letter when that happens. It just quietly becomes true, and buyers can only ever pay what they can borrow. None of that is comfortable, and we’re not going to dress it up as good news.

Here’s the part worth sitting with instead. A rate rise doesn’t just make borrowing more expensive, it also does something quieter: it thins the crowd. Some of the people who were “looking” were never especially close to buying, pre-approved on paper but not stress-tested against another rise, and often competing in multiple-offer situations more out of momentum than conviction. A fourth rise in a year is exactly what separates that group from buyers who’ve actually run their numbers with a buffer built in. Not pleasant for the people who drop out, but for everyone still standing, it changes the texture of the market. Buyers left in it get less competition from marginal bidders and more room to actually think, less pressure to waive a building inspection because of six other offers, more time to ask the second question instead of signing on adrenaline. Sellers get enquiry that’s more likely to be real: fewer offers that unravel three weeks later when finance falls over, fewer negotiations that drag because one side was never quite ready to commit.

That’s the first story. The second is the one running across every national masthead this week.

The noise: national headlines. The fact: Griffith’s own numbers

There’s plenty of noise around property right now, and some of it is confronting. National dwelling values are falling. Interest rates have risen again. Banks are tightening the numbers.

Yet Griffith NSW house values are still showing 10.6% annual growth, with Cotality putting the median house value at approximately $635,865. That’s a seriously good result, and it’s not a guarantee of what comes next. The same $94,700 drop in borrowing capacity applies here too, and it doesn’t care how strong Griffith’s run has been. Less borrowing power means buyers become more price-sensitive, the gap between seller expectations and buyer capacity can widen, and properties that aren’t positioned correctly can sit, even in a market this tight.

So Griffith is entering this changing market from a position of strength, not from immunity to it. The market hasn’t stopped, but the buyer has changed, and that’s exactly where the third story comes in: the one sellers hear most often when they’re deciding who should sell their home.

The noise: the confident agent pitch and the SOLD sticker. The fact: the evidence

In real estate, we think sellers should flip the old saying too. Don’t let a good agent story, a polished social media feed or a SOLD sticker get in the way of the facts.

A SOLD sticker tells you a property sold. It doesn’t tell you whether it sold well. Was the original price realistic? How long was it on the market? How many times was the price reduced? What did the agent originally tell the seller it was worth, and how did that compare with the final result? A property advertised at one price and eventually sold after significant discounting isn’t necessarily evidence of a great campaign. Sometimes it’s evidence that the market corrected the strategy.

Be particularly careful with one of the easiest lines in real estate: “let’s try for your price.” It sounds supportive, like the agent believes in your property. What they may really be saying is: if I agree with you now, I can win the listing, and we can deal with the price later. Choosing an agent should be about more than confidence, promises, followers or SOLD stickers. Look at the evidence. Ask harder questions. Dig deeper. Compare what was promised with what was actually delivered. Hearing what you want to hear at the listing appointment might feel good, but with buyers more price-sensitive than they were in January, a story that doesn’t stack up gets more expensive, not less.

What this means for you

If you’re buying: the fact that matters is your own number, not the headline. Get your finance reassessed against today’s rate, ask your broker to stress-test it against one more possible rise, and you’re one of the steadier, more credible buyers in a town with this little stock.

If you’re selling: the fact that matters is the evidence behind the pitch. Ask any agent what they believe your home is worth, how that compares with where similar campaigns actually finished, and be wary of anyone offering to “try for your price” without showing their workings. Realistic pricing, honest presentation and a real strategy are what get you a clean result instead of a long, discounted one.

If you’re an owner staying put: you’ve absorbed real repayment increases this year. If you haven’t asked your lender for a sharper rate since the last rise, that call is worth making this week.

If you’re investing: vacancy near 1% and yields around 4.3% are doing a lot of the work on your side of the ledger, and a more filtered buyer and tenant pool tends to mean fewer surprises down the track.

The bottom line

Three stories, one rule: check the headline, the national coverage and the listing pitch against the facts before you act on any of them. A rate rise that costs real money also thins out the noise. A market with genuinely strong growth is still not a guarantee of what’s next. And a SOLD sticker is not evidence of a job well done. Put the facts together and you get a calmer market, not a weaker one: one where buyers have room to be confident and sellers deal with people who are actually ready to go, provided the price, the presentation and the strategy stack up.

If you want the facts behind where today’s rate leaves you, or what your home is actually worth, come and have the conversation. We’d rather you make a confident decision than a fast one.

Please note: this is general information only, not financial advice. Borrowing capacity and repayment figures are illustrative and depend on your lender, loan type, income and circumstances. Speak with your broker or lender before making decisions.