Regional NSW just recorded the weakest housing conditions in the country. That headline is not about Griffith

If you read a property headline last week, you would be forgiven for feeling a bit ill.

National home values fell 0.9% in August. That is the fifth month in a row, and it leaves the country 3.6% below the peak it set back in March. Sydney is down 1.4% for the month and sitting 7.1% below its February high, falling faster now than it did in the 2022 correction. Ninety three per cent of capital city suburbs went backwards through winter.

Then came the line that should worry a Griffith owner most. Cotality’s regional update named regional New South Wales, alongside regional Victoria, as the weakest performing regional market in Australia.

That sounds like us. It is not us. And the reason why is worth ten minutes of your week.

There are two regional New South Wales

Look at which regional NSW markets are actually falling and a pattern appears immediately. Coffs Harbour, down 3.3% for the quarter. Goulburn, down 3.2%. Nelson Bay, down 3.0%. On selling times, Bowral and Mittagong now sit at a median 86 days on market, Batemans Bay at 70, St Georges Basin at 66.

Coastal. Lifestyle. Tree change and sea change towns that absorbed an enormous wave of city money between 2020 and 2022, and are now handing a chunk of it back as that demand unwinds.

Now look at the inland centres in the same report. Dubbo, up 3.9% for the quarter. Tamworth, up 2.2%. Albury and Wodonga, up 2.0%. Same state, same interest rate, same national downturn, opposite direction.

Cotality’s head of research, Gerard Burg, put his finger on why. Growth is no longer concentrated in the lifestyle markets that fed on spillover demand during the boom. Buyers are gravitating instead toward regional centres where their dollar stretches further and local demand is supporting housing values.

That is a fairly precise description of Griffith. We are an inland working town with our own economy, our own employers and our own buyers. Our market was never built on Sydney people fleeing Sydney, so it is not now unwinding as they head back.

What that looks like in our numbers

Griffith’s median house value is sitting around $612,000, up roughly 8% over the past year, while the national index has spent five months going the other way. There are still only about 25 houses listed for sale in the whole town. Vacancy is near 1%, median house rent is around $523 a week, and gross yields are holding near 4.34%.

Compare that to what the national data is describing. Capital city listings are 24% higher than a year ago. Sales volumes are running 15.5% below last year. Days on market are stretching, vendor discounting is widening, auction clearances have been under 50% since May. Buyers there have all the leverage and, in Tim Lawless’s words, are lacking the confidence to use it.

None of that describes what happens when a well presented home hits the market in Griffith.

The honest part

Here is where we would rather be straight with you than sell you a story.

Griffith is not immune, and being in the better half of regional NSW is not the same as being untouched. The cash rate is 4.35%, and after a hotter than expected July inflation read, markets have moved from expecting nothing to pricing a real chance of another rise when the RBA meets on 28 and 29 September. The forecasters are split. NAB is calling a September hike, ANZ and CommBank are pointing at November, Westpac thinks the Bank sits still all year.

If they do move, it lands here the same way it lands everywhere. Every buyer in town borrows a little less, and that eventually shows up in what people can pay.

The second honest note is about our own figures. Depending on which source you read, Griffith’s median house price is quoted anywhere between $610,000 and $660,000, and annual growth between 8% and 10.7%. Time on market has lengthened in 44 of the country’s 50 largest regional markets, and we would rather flag that than pretend the spread does not exist. Take any single number, including ours, as a guide rather than gospel.

What this means for you

If you’re selling: do not price off the national headline, in either direction. Your buyer is local, your comparable sale is three streets away, and neither of them read the Cotality release. What is true is that buyers everywhere are more cautious and more price sensitive than they were a year ago. Presentation and a realistic number still do the heavy lifting.

If you’re buying: the rate risk sits with you, not the vendor. Get your finance reviewed on today’s numbers and ask your broker what your borrowing capacity looks like if the cash rate goes to 4.60%. Knowing that before the end of September is worth more than any market forecast.

If you’re an owner staying put: you are holding an asset in the part of regional NSW that is still growing while most of the country is not. That is a good position, and it is worth actually knowing what it is worth. An appraisal costs nothing.

If you’re an investor: the arithmetic has quietly improved. National gross yields hit 3.79% in August, the highest since 2019, because values fell while rents kept rising. Regional yields are running at 4.2% against 3.6% in the capitals, and Griffith sits above the regional average at around 4.34%, with vacancy near 1%. If you have been waiting for income to catch up to price, this is closer to that market than the past two years were.

The bottom line

Regional NSW is having a rough quarter. Coastal regional NSW, mostly. The inland centres with real local economies are a different market inside the same headline, and Griffith is one of them.

That is not a reason to be complacent. It is a reason to make decisions on your street rather than on the six o’clock news. If you want to know what your own position looks like heading into spring, come and have the conversation.

Please note: this is general information only, not financial advice. Market figures are medians and estimates that vary by source, property and street, and interest rate movements are forecasts rather than certainties. For your specific situation, speak with us or your broker directly.