Upsizing in Griffith: the cost of waiting for the “perfect” moment

Most Griffith upsizers we speak to are waiting for something. A rate cut, a price drop, a sign that the market has “settled”. It’s a sensible instinct. It’s also worth checking whether the wait is actually saving you anything.

The headlines are loud right now. Cotality has national home values down for the sixth month in a row, 5.2% below the March peak, with Sydney leading the fall. The RBA cash rate sits at 4.60% after four rises this year, and the next decision lands on Tuesday 3 November. Estimates put the hit to a typical household’s borrowing capacity at around $90,000 since February.

If you’re in a three-bedroom home in Griffith and the kids are getting bigger, that’s a lot to take in. Here’s how we’d think about it.

Upsizing is a swap, not a purchase

The first thing to say is the most helpful: when you upsize, you’re selling and buying in the same market. If the market softens, it softens on both sides of your move.

That’s why the gap matters more than the headline. The gap is the difference between what your current home sells for and what the bigger one costs. That’s the number your lender cares about, and it’s the number that tells you whether this is the right time. A falling market can leave the gap smaller, not bigger, particularly if the home you want has been sitting a while and the vendor is open to a conversation.

Why Griffith is playing a different game

The national story is cities correcting. Regional markets have eased too, but more gently: Cotality has regional values down 0.7% in September and still up around 5.6% on the year. Griffith has had its own run, with house values up around 10.6% on the year at our last look and a median around $636,000, which is roughly 29% below the national median.

Supply has been the other half of the story. Around 25 houses listed at any one time is very tight for a town of this size. For an upsizer, that cuts two ways, and it’s worth being honest about both:

• Selling your current home. Fewer competing listings means your home tends to stand out, particularly a well-kept three-bedroom with a decent block. That’s the strong side of your move.
• Buying the next one. The same tight supply means the bigger family homes you want don’t come up often. A buyer who has waited for the “right” one to appear has often waited a long time.

The real risk is the timing between the two

The classic upsizer worry is getting caught between two settlements. Here are the options we talk through with owners:

1. Sell first, then buy. Cleaner finance, and you know your budget to the dollar. The trade-off is that you may need a longer settlement on your sale, or short-term accommodation, so it helps to have a plan.
2. Buy first, then sell. You can chase the right home, but it relies on bridging finance or a lender comfortable with two loans for a period. In a market where borrowing power has dropped, that’s harder than it was twelve months ago.
3. Align the two. Often the best option in a small market. A conditional offer, a longer settlement or a leaseback can take most of the stress out of the overlap. It’s a conversation worth having early with your agent, broker and conveyancer.

What helps before you list

• Get a real appraisal, not an online estimate. Online figures are built on averages. With so few Griffith sales to compare, the real number can sit well away from the estimate, in either direction.
• Get your finance position confirmed. Speak to a broker about what you can borrow today, not what you could borrow last year. Include the cost of stamp duty and moving.
• Know what you want and what you’ll trade. Land size, a pool, a granny flat, a shed. Make a list of your must-haves and your nice-to-haves before you start looking. It makes you faster when the right home appears.
• Tidy for presentation early. Garden, paint and a good clear-out go a long way, and they cost far less than a price reduction.
• Think about the calendar. Spring is a strong window in Griffith, and many families like to be settled before Christmas and the new school year. Working backwards from the date you want to be in the new place shows you how soon you need to start.

What about waiting?

If your plans are flexible, waiting for the 3 November RBA decision is reasonable. But waiting for the market to “bottom” is a different thing. The property institute has warned of further falls in the cities, and nobody can call the low point with confidence. What we can say is that a family that needs the space now is paying for the wait in other ways: another summer in a house that’s too small, or another year of school runs, storage costs and compromises.

Equally, if you can’t make the numbers work, it’s completely fine to stay put and improve what you have. A renovation can sometimes be the better upsizing strategy. We’re happy to give you an honest view on whether to move or improve.

The bottom line

You don’t need to time the market. You need to know your gap, your finance position and your timeline. If those three line up, the right moment is when you’re ready.

Know your gap. Know your timeline. Feels right.

Please note: this is general information only, not financial, tax or legal advice. Market figures are drawn from Cotality’s September 2026 Home Value Index and weekend auction reports, and Griffith figures are from earlier SOUL reporting. Past performance isn’t a guarantee of future results, and every property is different. Speak to your broker, accountant and conveyancer before making decisions.

Know your numbers. Know your market. Feels right.